Predicting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Using Google Trends
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Elizabeth Pancotti, Aaron Sojourner
Thanks to Minneapolis Fed’s Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute
And Dylan Piatt and Zach Swaziek for their help
Goal: forecasting new uninsurance claims
Initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims count is one of the most-sensitive, high-frequency official statistics used to detect changes in the labor market.
However, official federal data on UI claims comes out at a weekly interval and at a lag.