Predicting Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims 

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Elizabeth Pancotti, Aaron Sojourner

Thanks to Minneapolis Fed’s Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute

And Dylan Piatt and Zach Swaziek for their help

Goal: forecasting new uninsurance claims

Initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims count is one of the most-sensitive, high-frequency official statistics used to detect changes in the labor market.

However, official federal data on UI claims comes out at a weekly interval and at a lag.